Contemporary situations, mapped to models

Thirteen worked cases

Each case takes a documented contemporary situation through the same six steps: the situation as the sources describe it, the model card it maps to, what the mathematics licenses, where the mapping breaks, what one would have to measure, and the sources. The site shows the mapping and the network of decision-makers; the sentences carry the book's evidence marks. Cases are dated: the sources were checked on the day stated, and a case ages into history from there.

Chapter 1 · p. 44 · checked 9 November 2026

risk-based checks under the EU deforestation regulation

how should a fixed number of checks follow the benchmark, what does a guarantee against relabelling cost, and how does the benchmark's accuracy change the answer?
Chapter 2 · p. 84 · checked 10 November 2026

allocating a campaign across battleground states

how do the objective and the existence of safe states change where an optimal campaign places its resources?
Chapter 3 · p. 117 · checked 9 November 2026

the oil price cap coalition

how much discipline can such a coalition sustain, and which improvement in its monitoring is worth most?
Chapter 4 · p. 158 · checked

bank stress tests as a committed information policy

what does a published test buy the supervisor, at whose expense, and how much of it depends on the test's binding?
Chapter 5 · p. 200 · checked 9 November 2026

satellite-navigation spoofing in civil aviation

what does each layer of checking guarantee against a spoofer who knows it, and when is an independent cross-check worth its false alarms?
Chapter 6 · p. 242 · checked 9 November 2026

verifying where controlled chips are

what does a verification rule cost compliant licensees, what does a margin of deterrence cost, and which improvement in the check is worth more?
Chapter 7 · p. 281 · checked 9 November 2026

the race to fill low Earth orbit

from which starts can the follower close the gap by $T$ whatever the leader does, and which lever moves the closing date?
Chapter 8 · p. 319 · checked

watching the Baltic seabed

can a plan nobody computes centrally be proved optimal; what does one member's withdrawal cost; whose assessment does the alliance end up acting on?
Chapter 9 · p. 353 · checked 9 November 2026

Middle East cable corridors

which chokepoints decide connectivity, and which investments buy resilience rather than capacity?
Chapter 9 · p. 360 · checked

shipping through the Strait of Hormuz under threat

what loss can protection guarantee, what does predictability cost, and should ships be gathered into fewer windows or spread over more?
Chapter 10 · p. 397 · checked 9 November 2026

markets on geopolitical events

when is a market price a forecast one can read, and what do insiders and outside stakes do to it?
Chapter 10 · p. 404 · checked 10 November 2026

official statements and the order book

what does advance knowledge of a statement cost, who pays, what does the price path reveal, and what can an audit of order flow detect?
Chapter 12 · p. 480 · checked 9 November 2026

evaluating a machine negotiator before procurement

what evaluation would make a reported pilot result evidence of quality, and what does a red-team finding certify?