Saddle Point
Back to the cover

Part I · Foundations

  1. 0 Mathematical Foundations
  2. 1 Observation, Beliefs, and Decision

Part II · Engines

  1. 2 Competing for Allocation: The Blotto Game
  2. 3 Bargaining, Commitment, and Repeated Cooperation
  3. 4 Signals, Disclosure, and Persuasion
  4. 5 Different Models of One Game
  5. 6 Leadership and Rules: Inspection
  6. 7 Decisions in Time
  7. 8 Many Agents
  8. 9 Networks, Dependence, and Resilience
  9. 10 Aggregating Information

Part III · Systems

  1. 11 Architecture of Decision Support
  2. 12 Simulation and Wargaming with AI Agents

Part IV · Limits

  1. 13 Where the Mathematics Stops

The models, running

Nine engines

One model from each engine chapter, built to be turned by hand. Set the parameters, read the value, and open the certificate: the exact numbers that prove the answer, in the same arithmetic the book uses. At the book's base parameters the engine reproduces the book's numbers; the check is part of the site's build.

  1. Chapter 0 · Mathematical Foundations The saddle point Why does a two-by-two game have a value, and what does a mixed strategy guarantee?
  2. Chapter 1 · Observation, Beliefs, and Decision What a signal is worth When does a risk signal change a decision, and how much is it worth at each prior?
  3. Chapter 2 · Competing for Allocation: The Blotto Game Blotto How should a fixed budget be spread across contested fields against an adversary?
  4. Chapter 3 · Bargaining, Commitment, and Repeated Cooperation The forgiving trigger How patient must two sides be for cooperation to survive noisy monitoring?
  5. Chapter 4 · Signals, Disclosure, and Persuasion Persuasion by design What can a committed test-designer make a sceptical audience believe?
  6. Chapter 6 · Leadership and Rules: Inspection Inspection with a noisy signal How often must an inspector check to deter, and what is the burden of deterrence?
  7. Chapter 8 · Many Agents Learning to play Does the average of best replies become unexploitable, and what certifies it?
  8. Chapter 9 · Networks, Dependence, and Resilience Flow and cut How much can pass through a network, and what limits it?
  9. Chapter 10 · Aggregating Information Proper scoring Which scores make an honest forecast the best forecast?