Saddle Point
Back to the cover

Part I · Foundations

  1. 0 Mathematical Foundations
  2. 1 Observation, Beliefs, and Decision

Part II · Engines

  1. 2 Competing for Allocation: The Blotto Game
  2. 3 Bargaining, Commitment, and Repeated Cooperation
  3. 4 Signals, Disclosure, and Persuasion
  4. 5 Different Models of One Game
  5. 6 Leadership and Rules: Inspection
  6. 7 Decisions in Time
  7. 8 Many Agents
  8. 9 Networks, Dependence, and Resilience
  9. 10 Aggregating Information

Part III · Systems

  1. 11 Architecture of Decision Support
  2. 12 Simulation and Wargaming with AI Agents

Part IV · Limits

  1. 13 Where the Mathematics Stops

Chapter 13 · Where the Mathematics Stops

Trygve Haavelmo

1911 – 1999

The problem on the desk

Economic theories were being compared with observations using statistical tools without an explicit probability model. Haavelmo asked for a coherent probabilistic foundation connecting interdependent economic relationships, data and statistical inference.1

A life in moments

  1. 1911

    Skedsmo

    Born near Oslo.2

  2. 1933

    University of Oslo · Oslo

    Graduated in economics and became an assistant at Frisch’s institute.2

  3. 1936

    University College London · London

    Studied statistics with Neyman and Pearson.2

  4. 1941

    Harvard University · Cambridge, Massachusetts

    Issued a mimeographed version of the probability-approach study.3

  5. 1944

    Published The Probability Approach in Econometrics as an Econometrica supplement.4

  6. 1948–1979

    University of Oslo · Oslo

    Held the professorship in economics and statistics until retirement.2

  7. 1989

    Received the economics prize.5

  8. 1999

    Died.5

Every line rests on a dated source (numbered below) unless it carries a mark: R for an inference, S for a story as told.

In their own words

But the bridge itself was never completely built.

The Probability Approach in Econometrics, 19446

A story

Wald helped reshape the manuscript

In the preface Haavelmo thanks Wald for suggestions and discussions that led him to formulate or reformulate statistical sections of the study.3

Around Haavelmo

  • collaboration Abraham Wald Haavelmo explicitly acknowledges Wald’s help with the statistical formulation.3
  • mentor Ragnar Frisch Haavelmo credits Frisch’s teaching and encouragement in the origins of the study.3

Students in the record Yngve Willassen Mathematics Genealogy Project record

The genealogy lists only what the database records; a missing name is not a missing teacher.

The card in the book

Norwegian economist. He took his degree in economics at the University of Oslo in 1933 and worked as an assistant at Ragnar Frisch's Institute of Economics. In the United States from 1939 to 1947 he wrote The Probability Approach in Econometrics, his doctoral thesis, published as a supplement to Econometrica in 1944, which argued that economic theories should be formulated in probabilistic terms and estimated and tested by the methods of mathematical statistics; his 1943 article on simultaneous equations showed that estimating one relation in isolation can be highly misleading when relations are interdependent. He was professor of economics and statistics at Oslo from 1948 to 1979, and received the 1989 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for clarifying the probability foundations of econometrics and for his analyses of simultaneous economic structures.

Main works “The statistical implications of a system of simultaneous equations” (Econometrica 11, 1943); The Probability Approach in Econometrics (Econometrica 12, supplement, 1944); A Study in the Theory of Economic Evolution (1954); A Study in the Theory of Investment (1960).

To read further

Sources (6)
  1. The Probability Approach in Econometrics, Trygve Haavelmo, 1944; Preface, pp. iii–v
  2. Trygve Haavelmo: Life and Work, University of Oslo, Department of Economics; Professional chronology; opening and return to Oslo
  3. The Probability Approach in Econometrics, Trygve Haavelmo, 1944; Preface, p. v
  4. The Probability Approach in Econometrics, Trygve Haavelmo, 1944; Bibliographic cover and preface
  5. Trygve Haavelmo, University of Oslo, Department of Economics; Opening life dates and prize information
  6. The Probability Approach in Econometrics, Trygve Haavelmo, 1944; Preface, p. iii; the bridge between theory and measurement

The facts on this page were gathered for the site from the sources listed, each checked against its locator; the book's card is reproduced unchanged.